North Korea’s nuclear test, China is the key.

So North Korea has cocked it’s little finger at the West. Western nuclear diplomacy has failed. They forgot that the most difficult nation to deal with is a nation with little to lose. The world over every one has panicked. It is less the threat of immediate nuclear war. It is that the Nuclear Club is loosing it’s grip over who, or who cannot have nuclear weapons. What are their options now ?


First, no one really believes that N Korea has a bomb they can deliver, or are about to deliver in the near future. The fear is that now more and more nations will feel free to explore the possiblities of joing the elitist Nuclear Club. Of course the nuclear club is something I do not understand. Why should ANYONE have nuclear weapons capablity. Who can garuntee that the ones that do have it, are likely to be more responsible about their use ? The US has bombed countries with amazing impunity SINCE the Second World War. In the name of fighting Communism first, and now in the cause of fighting Terrorism.
The fear that is very valid is that North Korea will sell it’s capability and technology to the Middle East. But I am not sure what technologies North Korea has ‘post the nuclear test’ that it would not have already traded with countries like Iran and Syria ?
An economic blockade of N Korea is not an option. No one wants to see hardship on a people that are already barely surviving. An economic blockade on only luxury goods as the US Ambasador the the UN has suggested that only targets the elite ? Does not sound like too much of a sanction to me. No luxury goods for the next one year. Hmmmm.
Is a military strike an option ? The combined might of the US and a European force could take out Pyongyang’s elite leadership, but holding an occupation force in North Korea with it’s highly trained and disciplined army is going to be far more difficult than Iraq. I do not believe the US and it’s allies will take that route.
And how is China going to react to a US military presence so close to it’s borders ? Highly unlikely that it will tolerate it. And history has shown that the Chinese will never be part of a combined military expedition.
As with so much of what is happening in the world today, China, and it’s attitude towards it’s neighbour, holds the key. What do I think they will do ? They will not be part of any major economic sanctions. They will not be part of a military expedition. In fact will actively, and if necessary, miltarily oppose any western military engagement so close to their borders.
China will take course in it’s own private diplomacy with North Korea, twisting the screws on Pyongang to their own political needs. After all, it is convenient to have a friendly neighbour that makes the West constantly uncomfortable,
Shekhar

5 Responses to “North Korea’s nuclear test, China is the key.”

  1. harpreet says:

    If only Julius Caesar had listened to the soothsayer before walking to the senate…
    MAHAPRITHVI- The Real First World War
    Winston Churchill in second world war once said something which meant as : “ How far a man can see in future depends upon how far he has seen in the past”
    .
    “History tends to repeat itself”
    Clash of civilizations- Samuel Huntington -1997, WTC towers -2001, Iraq frisked for WMD by IAEA under UN banner, no weapon found. Iraq invaded-2003-04. north Korea goes nuclear- 2006.
    Flashback – I : French Revolution- enlightenment- man defies tradition, finds God within. 150yrs of world economic/trade boom. The West trades opium for Gold in China. The opium wars. Generations of Chinese become addicts.
    Excesses breed lust, lust breed excesses. World War-I. Rebuilding of Germany with American money. The Great Depression. Americans withdraw money from Germany. Hitler is born. World War-II. The little boy & Fat man – Hiroshima & Nagasaki. One million Japanese dead in minutes.
    The West pushes for Democracy in China. Tinanman Square happens- 1989.
    Flashback – II : The Mahabharta War. The powerful forces of materialism in that Era – Duryodhan , Hastinapur, first suppressed the Spiritualists, traditionalists and then tried disempowering them completely by not giving them their fair share of power and land. Krishna a mysterious and fabled man of the times uses his extraordinary/superhuman intelligence to aid the triumph of the underdogs. In the end of 18 day war the materialist superpower of the times was totally vanquished and had to loose completely even its own share of land & power. Till date India celebrates Krishna’s godliness – as the protector / preserver God of the trinity of Brahma – the creator, Vishnu – the Preserver, Shiva – the destroyer.
    A Clarification : Nation states born, drawing of the national borders on the World map – done by the West in the treaty of Westphalia & follow-ups in which the East did not have much say (the ones in the East who toed the line of the West on borders are still seen as their had-been puppets or westernized in their education) . Basically: Three races – Caucasian: basically the West ; Negroid : basically Africans & equatorial people ; Mongoloids : basically the far east/Changs.
    A Fact : India invaded by the Caucasians – Aryans & Alexander. invaded by Mongoloids- Gengiz Khan and his decedents. On these invasions the aboriginal people pushed down south, having Negroid traits: Dravidians. A large population of north Indians today has a genetic mix of all the three races.
    The Fear : Samuel Huntington’s tragic prophecies as being self fulfilled by the West will bring humanity at the brink of the real first World War. The War of the races: On one hand will be the whole of Europe, UK led by the US, on the other the East Asia – the Koreas, Japan lead by China.
    The Flash Point : China’s non-democratic economy being funded by the west & its FIIs/FDIs, thus aided China grows at 10-12% for 10yrs. By 2017 the American economy hit by the wars in the middle-east & general disdain from the International community for its one up man-ship & arm twisting methods revisits another financial depression & general isolation. The Far East experiences internal, regional problems and tries to solve them by non-democratic (single man, single party) means.
    Nuclear threat surmounts. The West withdraws its money a-la Germany in the Great depression. The situation deteriorates further. A man rises in the far east unifying the whole Mongoloid race by pointing to them the problems caused by the West in the last three or four centuries- opium , wars, colonization, nuclear destruction and economic hegemony. After unifying the Mongoloid race he clandestinely gathers the support of the Muslim class in the middle-east prophesying them how they were used against the Soviet Union and how for the last two decades after the Soviet union crumbled they are being harassed brutally and their natural resources being plundered & looted. Russia itself not having forgotten the insult / strategic defeat might like to even out some grudges supporting this coalition of the underdogs. Africa as a continent does not relish external powers to enforce fully guide & monitor their day to day activities, nor does it like its natural resources being cheaply sent to West while the waste (even nuclear) from West being dumped in Africa. Even if not physically & financially but morally Africa will tend to support anti-West propaganda.
    The Savior : India strong on its fundamentals backed by a democratic, sustainable growth of 7-8% per year continuously for two decades gathers enough global recognition to be listened to by both sides of the spectrum. India which will have by 2017, 70yrs of experience of independence, sovereignty, nuclear responsibility, good relations with all countries (having deliberately done so with Pakistan also), of both the public & private sectors, of both ideologies of communists & capitalists, of Non-alignment and unbiased attitude towards the west and the East, with a population genetically empowered with the hybrid genes of all races thus understanding the intellectual, ideological & spiritual standpoints of all sides will be requested / invited by the saner individuals of all sides to manufacture a conciliation between them and save humanity from the could-be final disaster.
    Then-on no one would ever dare again divide humanity into races, civilizations, nations, creeds. Then-on the nuclear power will solely be used for which the Universe really intended us to use it – Space exploration, Electric power & finding out more living forms out their in the Milky way and beyond. Then-on the true Golden era for Humanity will begin.
    Dear Shekhar,
    Regards,
    The script on the above mentioned brief outline is oozing to come-out. It is pertinent and seems fit in the present global scheme of things. Just as in case of individuals who have no love lost between them the subconscious causes of the present wars and conflicts lies in the inter-twined histories/ destinies of all regions. And as a psychiatrist with mastery in conflict management would endorse- an open, clear and unbiased rendering/ recalling of the histories from the standpoints of all sides would go a long way in removing many misunderstandings which otherwise would have culminated in a full blown conflict. Obviously even after these psychological deliberations the wrong doers will have to accept the misdeeds ( intentional or otherwise) of their earlier generations and pay back in a peaceful way for the necessary repair. This is mandatory for the whole of humanity today to cohabitate peacefully and progress further as Earthians.
    The film on these lines will help bring-out the story of each side in an unbiased way thus providing a vent to the collective subconscious fears, hates, vengeances etc of all sides. Thus it will provide a reference point/initiation point for a global mass dialogue in the media as well as the internet. It will provoke a healthy global debate on the evolution of political & economic situation as seen from all angles.
    I need to team up with people who have the capabilities to understand the bigger picture as well as delineate it in the form of a film script.
    Awaiting for your guidance and encouragement.
    Yours
    harpreet( harpreetrsingh@yahoo.com)

  2. harpreet says:

    Sir, the other day discussing the “MAHAPRITHVI” theme with my friend I got a comment that it’s all too hypothetical. Well fiction is supposed to be hypothetical and this one has the potential of an all-encompassing political thriller close to truth.
    Not that I am not aware of World bank, IMF & ADB but when a Nobel laureate and ex.-W.B.Chief & ex.-Chief economist of US administration of the renown of Joseph Stiglitz writes about Globalization & its Discontents, questions do arise in the mind. And media, I believe, must strengthen the hands of such courageous economists by rendering in the audio/visual media their visionary ideas & fears to the masses in a language they can understand.
    I also am of the opinion that if a work of imagination or art can create a positive change of even 0.1% in reality it is worth the effort.
    Even a documentary (for BBC, Discovery or History channel) on the issue by visiting & interviewing peoples of all regions & continents and reinforcing these interviews with archives and dramatic recreation of historical events could have the desired effect. But then even a documentary like a book is mostly intellectual food for the relatively elite. Masses get pulled by high drama and glitter only, as you would know better. We cannot expect to provide all answers but only initiate a genuine people to people dialogue/debate.
    As for myself, if you care, I am an electrical engineer by graduation. Had a six year stint with the Punjab State Electricity Board from 1999-2005. Am a grade-A diploma holder in acting from Barry John’s IMAGO school of acting. Since last year I have been researching on commonalities between various religions and world wide efforts being made for syntheses of science and religion. In the meanwhile I have just got registered an NGO named “EVOLUTION” and am gathering a team to publish a magazine named “The Global Culture Kitchen”.
    Since on your site you have urged bloggers to be impulsive rather than furnishing structured thoughts, I have availed the liberty. I also am of the conclusion in concurrence with yours that our notions of individuality are illusive and the truly real in-dividual is the Whole. And that no idea is final until it manifests itself.
    Still awaiting for a response.
    Regards
    harpreet
    harpeetrsingh@yahoo.com

  3. Shikhar says:

    Hi Shekhar..I’m Shikhar..ha
    anyway wanted to post to you desperatly on something that was near what to me(I don’t live in Korea but the subject close to me)..I’m following you guys for more than 6 months now on diffrent subjects..
    Just want to say that these tests by Pyongyang was evitable and so is in years time some more tests by Japan and rest to follow..(maybe in 5-10 yrs)
    Yes China is the key because everything went through China (land route)Pakistan – North Korea..I don’t know why even the Americans are so sloppy sometimes (CIA)or all the times for us (India).
    I’m not a head honcho but I gather this by some observations..I hope Shekhar has read “The Third World War – Humprey Hawksley” things are going somewhat according to it..

  4. Harb says:

    Perhaps it is time for someone to go beyond Mahabharata and write/produce Mahaprithvi, as Harpreet has beautifully made a case for.

  5. Raj says:

    and what’s India’s agenda with the US/India Deal On Nuclear Cooperation ?

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